A sports prediction market most casual bettors had never heard of a year ago is now valued at $2 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal, up fourfold from a $500 million valuation earlier this year. The jump came after Novig built its public profile around a viral advertising campaign starring actress Sydney Sweeney, who posed nude with sports equipment strategically covering her body to promote the platform.
From Niche Podcast to Billion-Dollar Platform
Novig had previously carved out a modest following through its own podcast and a partnership with the New York Mets, positioning itself as a smaller alternative to prediction market heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket. Those platforms let users trade on the outcome of real-world events - sports, elections, economic data - using a market structure that regulators and traditional sportsbooks have increasingly scrutinized as a workaround to state-level gambling licensing and taxation. Novig's growth trajectory changed sharply once Sweeney, who signed on as an equity investor, became the face of its marketing push. The ads, built around the line "Think you know sports? Prove it," showed her posing with footballs, a basketball hoop and a soccer ball in ways designed to generate attention far beyond the betting-adjacent audience Novig had previously reached.
Backlash and the Business Logic Behind It
The campaign drew immediate criticism from athletes and commentators who argued it sexualized women's sports and reduced female competitors to their appearance, rather than their performance. British sprinter Amy Hunt, Olympic swimmer Ariarne Titmus and gymnast Gracie Kramer each responded publicly by posting footage of themselves competing, framing it as a contrast to Sweeney's ad. Sweeney lost a reported 200,000 Instagram followers in the aftermath, though she retains a following near 26 million. Novig's chief executive, Jacob Fortinsky, has defended the campaign, saying the company supports women's sports and that the ad's framing reflected Sweeney's own creative direction rather than a statement about female athletes. Whatever the merits of that defense, the commercial achieved what advertisers typically want: attention, conversation and, according to the reported valuation jump, capital.
What This Signals for Prediction Markets
Investor appetite for prediction markets has grown rapidly even as regulatory questions remain unresolved. Critics contend these platforms exploit structural loopholes to offer wagering-like products without the licensing, consumer protections or tax obligations applied to regulated sportsbooks. Some platforms in this category have also faced scrutiny over alleged insider trading and markets tied to geopolitical events, including war and terrorism, which opponents argue could create perverse incentives. Novig's funding round came largely from existing backers, including venture firms such as Pantera Capital, Multicoin Capital and NFX, suggesting conviction among early investors rather than a broad new wave of institutional interest.
A Familiar Playbook for Sweeney
This is not the first time Sweeney's advertising work has generated friction. Her American Eagle "great jeans" campaign last year drew accusations of insensitivity even as it reportedly drove substantial new customer traffic to the retailer. A separate partnership with Dr. Squatch produced a novelty bathwater-scented soap that similarly traded on her image for commercial buzz. The Novig campaign fits that same pattern: provocative creative, public controversy, and a measurable commercial payoff, regardless of where observers land on the ethics of the approach. For a prediction market operating in a regulatory gray zone, that kind of visibility carries its own value - and its own risk, as scrutiny of both the marketing and the underlying product is likely to intensify as the platform scales.